Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Taiwan" during Philippines President events on July 22?

Resolved

No, settled Jul 23, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$2.5K

Resolved

Settled

Jul 23, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 23 Jul 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 42% on 22 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 22 Jul 2025 to 23 Jul 2025, the highest close was 42% on 22 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 23 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 42 points down, to 0.4% on 23 Jul 2025. $2.55K traded over the market's life.

12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jul 24, 8:40 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 22 Jul 2025 – 23 Jul 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
22 Jul 2025	42.0%
23 Jul 2025	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
nick15	Yes	421.07
Smart-Pea	Yes	203.74
PMMMR	Yes	125
joker34	Yes	103.3

10 of 12 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in Bilateral events with the president of Philippines on July 22, 2025 (https://youtu.be/Jm14BASWNRM?t=197). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at these events. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by July 22, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about scheduled Bilateral events with the Philippines president (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). If a Bilateral Lunch is scheduled and broadcast, it will also qualify toward this market's resolution. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named scheduled events will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the events contain a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events.