Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 20%. Yes opened at 43% on 1 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 1 Jul 2026 to 5 Jul 2026, the highest close was 80% on 5 Jul 2026 and the lowest 43% on 1 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 80% on 5 Jul 2026. $943.48 traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 6, 6:01 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 1 Jul 2026 – 5 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | 43.0% |
| 5 Jul 2026 | 80.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Golden Beacon 9DE3 | Yes | 62.07 |
| 4fee-s3 | Yes | 20 |
| Emerald Quasar CE10 | Yes | 12.42 |
| Jade Pulse 462D | Yes | 11 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a keynote address at the "Tribute to America" Independence Day celebration in Washington, D.C., on July 4, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET. (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116817366986980714). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks during the "Tribute to America" Independence Day address scheduled for July 4, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not available by July 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio/video of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-the-tribute-to-america-rally-on-july-4th-20260630160619995
| 1f2da719e0b226d9d91664b0cfe0659 | Yes | 5.01 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 0.38 |
| flexer78 | Yes | 0.01 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
