Analytics
Resolved No on 17 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 63.5%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 14 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 14 Sep 2025 to 17 Sep 2025, the highest close was 49.5% on 14 Sep 2025 and the lowest 36.5% on 17 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6 points down, to 43.5% on 15 Sep 2025. $18.5K traded over the market's life.
21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 19, 12:51 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 14 Sep 2025 – 17 Sep 2025, chart shows 30%–55%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Sep 2025 | 49.5% |
| 17 Sep 2025 | 36.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| win2025 | Yes | 939.5 |
| lizhuoshen | Yes | 899.99 |
| Oo1o | Yes | 564 |
| Gozadordelarosada | Yes | 431.9 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Donald Trump is scheduled to speak at a UK state banquet on September 17, 2025. (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/donald-trump-melania-trump-president-keir-starmer-buckingham-palace-b2824153.html) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Any usage of the term, regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market is explicitly about the specified appearance at the scheduled UK state banquet. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of this event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. If this event is definitively cancelled or otherwise is not aired by September 18, 2025, 11:59 PM GMT, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the video of the event.
Resolution source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4eMrdzaaXaA
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-at-the-uk-state-banquet-on-september-17
| TheNoobBeaver | Yes | 363.4 |
| securepayment | Yes | 310.08 |
| PMMMR | Yes | 300 |
| Lilpump | Yes | 280 |
| jefferr | Yes | 250 |
| AvishaiBass | Yes | 137.36 |
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