Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 17% on 25 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 39 daily closes on record from 25 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 17% on 25 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.5% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points down, to 9.5% on 26 Nov 2025. $45.82K traded over the market's life.
48 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 25 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Nov 2025 | 17.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Cheeser4001 | Yes | 1.31K |
| tailevent | Yes | 600 |
| jackofalltrades-479 | Yes | 599.99 |
| 63483 | Yes | 345 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market. A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-in-december
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 310 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 191 |
| Grokius | Yes | 188.12 |
| pfizervictim | Yes | 176.18 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 167 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 163 |
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