Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 71.5%. Yes opened at 46.5% on 2 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2024 to 3 Oct 2024, the highest close was 46.5% on 2 Oct 2024 and the lowest 28.5% on 3 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 28.5% on 3 Oct 2024. $18.06K traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 4, 10:56 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 2 Oct 2024 – 3 Oct 2024, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2024 | 46.5% |
| 3 Oct 2024 | 28.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| YehiaSaid | Yes | 1.64K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 3 in Saginaw, Michigan (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-saginaw-michigan). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "mentally impaired" or "mentally disabled" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 3, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the event.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-michigan-rally-oct-3
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