Analytics
Resolved No on 7 Sep 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 65.5%. Yes opened at 42% on 5 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 5 Sep 2024 to 7 Sep 2024, the highest close was 42% on 5 Sep 2024 and the lowest 31% on 6 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 31% on 6 Sep 2024. $67.19K traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 8, 10:13 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 5 Sep 2024 – 7 Sep 2024, chart shows 25%–45%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Sep 2024 | 42.0% |
| 7 Sep 2024 | 34.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| g... | Yes | 7.28K |
| btcfury | Yes | 272.34 |
| Gobii | Yes | 53.73 |
| Lumbering-Diam | Yes | 0.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Donald Trump has scheduled a rally to be held on September 7 in Mosinee, Wisconsin. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "MAGA" and/or "make America great again" 4 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "MAGA" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to making America great again (e.g. "MAGA-themed" counts). If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond September 7, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the speech.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-wisconsin-rally
| daroghi | Yes | 0.01 |
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