Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 32.5% on 1 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 32 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2025 to 1 Nov 2025, the highest close was 41% on 2 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.7% on 1 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 20% on 3 Oct 2025. $11.57K traded over the market's life.
21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 1 Oct 2025 – 1 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2025 | 32.5% |
| 1 Nov 2025 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 1.75K |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 376 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 136 |
| Limited-Cat | Yes | 132.47 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between October 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-in-october
| Socoms | Yes | 49.09 |
| 63483 | Yes | 42.17 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 28 |
| jantansol | Yes | 22.71 |
| Purple-Plight | Yes | 20 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 15 |
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