Analytics
Resolved Yes on 2 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 25.5%. Yes opened at 32.5% on 30 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 30 Apr 2025 to 2 May 2025, the highest close was 32.5% on 30 Apr 2025 and the lowest 18% on 1 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 18% on 1 May 2025. $31.42K traded over the market's life.
2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 3, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 30 Apr 2025 – 2 May 2025, chart shows 15%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Apr 2025 | 32.5% |
| 2 May 2025 | 25.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a commencement speech at the University of Alabama on May 1, 2025. You can read more about that here: https://tuscaloosathread.com/university-of-alabama-confirms-trumps-commencement-speech-for-all-spring-seniors/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by May 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about the main speech Trump gives at the named event. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of this event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the events.
Resolution source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxq9e0l5XAk
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-his-university-of-alabama-commencement-speech-on-may-1
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