Analytics
Resolved No on 19 Jul 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 72.5%. Yes opened at 20.5% on 17 Jul 2024. Before it settled, the high was 27.5% on 19 Jul 2024 and the low 20.5% on 17 Jul 2024. Its largest one-day move was 5 points up, to 27.5% on 19 Jul 2024. $7.82K traded over the market's life.
Polymarket record as of Jul 20, 5:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 17 Jul 2024 – 19 Jul 2024, chart shows 15%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2024 | 20.5% |
| 19 Jul 2024 | 27.5% |
Polymarket lists no holders for this market.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "January 6", "J6", or "Jan 6" at any point during any speech Donald Trump gives on the final day of the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no speech happens on that day, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the terms regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the terms will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. The ordinal from of six, 'sixth', will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source is live video of the speech. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-his-rnc-speech
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