Analytics
Resolved No on 20 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 38%. Yes opened at 55.5% on 16 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 66 daily closes on record from 16 Nov 2024 to 20 Jan 2025, the highest close was 77.5% on 17 Nov 2024 and the lowest 47% on 23 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 77.5% on 17 Nov 2024. $507.42K traded over the market's life.
160 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 21, 8:59 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 66 points, 16 Nov 2024 – 20 Jan 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Nov 2024 | 55.5% |
| 20 Jan 2025 | 62.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| hzc | Yes | 7.61K |
| Darwinsfish1 | Yes | 3K |
| omegastauf | Yes | 2.35K |
Donald Trump's inaugural address is scheduled to take place on January 20, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. If this candidate doesn't appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond February 3, 2025 ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the speech.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech
| Yes |
| 1.8K |
| EuRoom | Yes | 1K |
| screwbar | Yes | 814.13 |
| tomtonn | Yes | 621.62 |
| Gooseggs | Yes | 482 |
| 1Thane | Yes | 413.47 |
| fireridlle | Yes | 412.37 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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