Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.8%. Yes opened at 53.5% on 27 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 27 Sep 2025 to 30 Sep 2025, the highest close was 53.5% on 27 Sep 2025 and the lowest 3.3% on 30 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 3.3% on 30 Sep 2025. $10.51K traded over the market's life.
27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 1, 8:41 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 27 Sep 2025 – 30 Sep 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2025 | 53.5% |
| 30 Sep 2025 | 3.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| JustBeHappy | Yes | 400 |
| 47Art | Yes | 309.99 |
| AlexPro | Yes | 251.65 |
| vlad2303 | Yes | 235.29 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in Bilateral events with the PM of Israel on September 29, 2025 (see https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-says-hell-meet-trump-again-issues-dire-warning-to-hamas-over-hostages/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at events featuring the Prime Minister of Israel on September 29, 2025. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context. If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market is explicitly about scheduled events featuring both Donald Trump and the Prime Minister of Israel (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). All such scheduled events featuring both on this date count. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of named, scheduled events, or which feature one named individual but not the other, will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the events contain a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by September 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxcsZrcYuM8
Official listing:
| Kipdrumstick | Yes | 202.61 |
| goldstndrd | Yes | 90 |
| Davidmhr | Yes | 85.71 |
| KingAlexthefreak | Yes | 77.64 |
| dtcfli | Yes | 47.27 |
| nakamotocard | Yes | 41.67 |
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