Analytics
Resolved No on 12 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 63.5%. Yes opened at 29% on 11 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 11 May 2025 to 12 May 2025, the highest close was 36.5% on 12 May 2025 and the lowest 29% on 11 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points up, to 36.5% on 12 May 2025. $4.54K traded over the market's life.
Polymarket record as of May 14, 12:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 11 May 2025 – 12 May 2025, chart shows 25%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 May 2025 | 29.0% |
| 12 May 2025 | 36.5% |
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Donald Trump has scheduled an event about drug prices on May 12 (see https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-big-announcement-medicare-drug-pricing-plan/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). This market is explicitly about the main speech Trump gives at this event. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of this event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by May 13 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source is the video of the event.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-at-medicare-drug-price-plan-event-on-may-12
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