Analytics
Resolved No on 13 Sep 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 64% on 12 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 12 Sep 2024 to 13 Sep 2024, the highest close was 64% on 12 Sep 2024 and the lowest 0.2% on 13 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 64 points down, to 0.2% on 13 Sep 2024. $116.89K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 14, 12:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 12 Sep 2024 – 13 Sep 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2024 | 64.0% |
| 13 Sep 2024 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Beachboy | Yes | 1K |
| GAN | Yes | 517.43 |
| R8man | Yes | 400 |
| MaYeshBeze | Yes | 88 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Donald Trump has scheduled a rally to be held on September 12 in Tucson, Arizona. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "fact check" or "fact checked" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the phrase regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the phrase will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond September 12, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the speech.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-arizona-rally
| sophier | Yes | 87.65 |
| MaruFaunder | Yes | 68.32 |
| gfdsghfsde | No | 49.52 |
| Schrute | Yes | 26.34 |
| Axios | Yes | 0.03 |
| daroghi | Yes | 0.03 |
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