Analytics
Resolved No on 20 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 68.5%. Yes opened at 40.5% on 7 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 7 Jan 2025 to 20 Jan 2025, the highest close was 40.5% on 7 Jan 2025 and the lowest 19% on 10 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 30.5% on 8 Jan 2025. $386.28K traded over the market's life.
161 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 21, 9:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 7 Jan 2025 – 20 Jan 2025, chart shows 10%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Jan 2025 | 40.5% |
| 20 Jan 2025 | 31.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| POHOHO | Yes | 22.6K |
| Ichi | Yes | 10.87K |
| xFynn | Yes | 6.01K |
| Keen Lynx 44C7 | Yes | 3.8K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Donald Trump's inaugural address is scheduled to take place on January 20, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Elon" or "Musk" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "Elon" or "Musk" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the person Elon Musk. If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond February 3, 2025 ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the speech.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech
| hzc | Yes | 3.72K |
| Cobalt Tide 7E24 | Yes | 3.66K |
| Amber Atlas 69CF | Yes | 3.66K |
| Emerald Scout 7E1F | Yes | 3.57K |
| Bright Pioneer FD49 | Yes | 3.36K |
| reverie8 | Yes | 2.6K |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
