Analytics
Resolved No on 22 Feb 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 69.5%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 21 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 21 Feb 2025 to 22 Feb 2025, the highest close was 50.5% on 21 Feb 2025 and the lowest 30.5% on 22 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 30.5% on 22 Feb 2025. $6.41K traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 23, 10:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 21 Feb 2025 – 22 Feb 2025, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2025 | 50.5% |
| 22 Feb 2025 | 30.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| bignickck | No | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Donald Trump is scheduled to speak at the upcoming Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) conference scheduled for Saturday, February 22, 2025. You can read more about that here: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5154914-donald-trump-speaking-cpac-2025/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his speech at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this appearance is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by February 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Only Trump’s keynote speech will count toward the resolution of this market. Any Q&A, interviews, or other instances of Trump publicly speaking will not be considered. The resolution source will be video of the speech.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-at-cpac-conference-on-saturday
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