Analytics
Resolved No on 6 Dec 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 70.5%. Yes opened at 73.5% on 19 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 19 Nov 2024 to 6 Dec 2024, the highest close was 73.5% on 19 Nov 2024 and the lowest 25% on 29 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 55% on 2 Dec 2024. $8.68K traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 7, 6:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 19 Nov 2024 – 6 Dec 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Nov 2024 | 73.5% |
| 6 Dec 2024 | 29.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 45P | Yes | 250 |
| Mustbenice | Yes | 101.96 |
| VICISLAV | Yes | 8.2 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
A speech is defined as any statement delivered on camera which is ten minutes (600 seconds) or greater in length. Only a live speech will qualify for this market. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "deport" during their speech. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "deport" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to expel a foreigner from a country, typically on the grounds of illegal status or for having committed a crime. If Donald Trump makes no speech by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the speech.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-in-next-speech
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