Analytics
Resolved No on 19 Jul 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 92%. Yes opened at 45% on 17 Jul 2024. Before it settled, the high was 45% on 17 Jul 2024 and the low 5.5% on 18 Jul 2024. Its largest one-day move was 40 points down, to 5.5% on 18 Jul 2024. $17K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 20, 3:58 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 3 points · 17 Jul 2024 – 19 Jul 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2024 | 45.0% |
| 19 Jul 2024 | 8.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Traderspot30 | Yes | 700 |
| PunterRidin | Yes | 489 |
| idarkwing | Yes | 30 |
| jess1234 | Yes | 10 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "dementia" at any point during any speech Donald Trump gives on the final day of the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC). Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no speech happens on that day, this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "dementia" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to symptoms related to memory/decision-making. The resolution source is live video of the speech. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-his-rnc-speech
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