Will Trump say "debate" during Michigan rally?

politicsResolved

Yes, settled Oct 3, 2024 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$31.4K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Oct 3, 2024 UTC

Topic roomTrump and the White House

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 3 Oct 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 90.5%. Yes opened at 74.5% on 2 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2024 to 3 Oct 2024, the highest close was 90.5% on 3 Oct 2024 and the lowest 74.5% on 2 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 90.5% on 3 Oct 2024. $31.39K traded over the market's life.

2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 4, 9:22 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 2 Oct 2024 – 3 Oct 2024, chart shows 70%–95%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
2 Oct 2024	74.5%
3 Oct 2024	90.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
crustywinner	Yes	0.07
0xCryone	Yes	0.07

2 of 2 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 3 in Saginaw, Michigan (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-hold-a-rally-in-saginaw-michigan). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "debate" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "debate" is part of the compound word and references a public discussion between competing political candidates. If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 3, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the event.