Analytics
Resolved No on 13 Aug 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 73%. Yes opened at 30.5% on 8 Aug 2024. Before it settled, the high was 30.5% on 8 Aug 2024 and the low 12.5% on 9 Aug 2024. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 12.5% on 9 Aug 2024. $291.18K traded over the market's life.
36 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 14, 5:13 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 8 Aug 2024 – 13 Aug 2024, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2024 | 30.5% |
| 13 Aug 2024 | 27.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Noonz | Yes | 6.78K |
| Beat-The-Jeet | Yes | 2.68K |
| SarcasticMan | Yes | 2.48K |
| ImmortalityOrExtinction | Yes | 2.36K |
| Bold Quasar 42D5 | Yes | 1.25K |
| MaxMeng | Yes | 1K |
| HenrytheGrape | Yes | 909.09 |
| SwissAvanti | Yes | 671.28 |
| Inconsequential-Recall | Yes | 599.8 |
| TriaKube | Yes | 500 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
On Tuesday, Donald Trump said he will do "a major interview with Elon Musk" on the night of Monday, August 12. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "civil war" during his interview with Elon Musk currently scheduled for August 12. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no interview between Musk and Trump is publicly released by August 23, 2024, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the phrase regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. The resolution source will be the first publicly released footage of the interview, which includes substantial and continuous content.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-elon-interview
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