Analytics
Resolved Yes on 6 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 88.5%. Yes opened at 72% on 5 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 5 Oct 2024 to 6 Oct 2024, the highest close was 88.5% on 6 Oct 2024 and the lowest 72% on 5 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 88.5% on 6 Oct 2024. $123.35K traded over the market's life.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 2:12 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 5 Oct 2024 – 6 Oct 2024, chart shows 65%–95%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Oct 2024 | 72.0% |
| 6 Oct 2024 | 88.5% |
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Donald Trump has scheduled a rally on October 5 in Butler, Pennsylvania (see: https://event.donaldjtrump.com/events/president-donald-j-trump-to-return-to-butler-pa). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "China" 10 or more times during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "China" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the country in East Asia officially named the People's Republic of China. If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond October 5, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the event.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-pennsylvania-rally-oct-5
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