Analytics
Resolved No on 20 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 60.5%. Yes opened at 58% on 16 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 16 Jan 2025 to 20 Jan 2025, the highest close was 58% on 16 Jan 2025 and the lowest 39.5% on 20 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 44% on 17 Jan 2025. $81.92K traded over the market's life.
45 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 21, 7:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 16 Jan 2025 – 20 Jan 2025, chart shows 30%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Jan 2025 | 58.0% |
| 20 Jan 2025 | 39.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Guilv | Yes | 1.13K |
| yolofree | Yes | 800 |
| dooklak | Yes | 557.98 |
| Kingdonaldddd | Yes | 513.41 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Donald Trump's inaugural address is scheduled to take place on January 20, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "ceasefire" during their appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Compound words will count as long as "ceasefire" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the cessation of fighting between parties in a military conflict. If this candidate does not appear at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond February 3, 2025 ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the video of the speech.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-inauguration-speech
| attackheli119 | Yes | 217.54 |
| GFlash | Yes | 205.55 |
| Pontarcs | Yes | 177.11 |
| EuRoom | Yes | 148.97 |
| aripls | Yes | 142.47 |
| zeub | Yes | 123.88 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
