Will Trump say “Autopen” during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?

Resolved

No, settled Jul 4, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$18.1K

Resolved

Settled

Jul 4, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 4 Jul 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 52.5%. Yes opened at 37% on 26 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 26 Jun 2025 to 4 Jul 2025, the highest close was 48% on 3 Jul 2025 and the lowest 28.5% on 27 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 28.5% on 27 Jun 2025. $18.12K traded over the market's life.

7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jul 5, 8:25 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 26 Jun 2025 – 4 Jul 2025, chart shows 20%–60%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
26 Jun 2025	37.0%
4 Jul 2025	47.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Keen Horizon 68C7	Yes	1K
Jade Horizon E9DF	Yes	999.99
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	413
luke90275	Yes	81

7 of 7 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a speech on July 3 at 7:30 p.m. at the Iowa State Fairgrounds. You can find more information on that here: https://cbs2iowa.com/news/local/president-donald-trump-coming-to-iowa-next-month-ahead-of-fourth-of-july-holiday-iowa-state-fairgrounds-americas-birthday-cbs-news-white-house This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word comprised of two full words in common usage will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by July 3, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about the main speech Trump gives at the named event. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of this event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the event.