Analytics
Resolved Yes on 13 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 41.5%. Yes opened at 45.5% on 10 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 10 Jan 2026 to 13 Jan 2026, the highest close was 48.5% on 11 Jan 2026 and the lowest 41% on 12 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points down, to 41% on 12 Jan 2026. $13.59K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 15, 12:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 10 Jan 2026 – 13 Jan 2026, chart shows 35%–55%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2026 | 45.5% |
| 13 Jan 2026 | 41.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 156 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 145 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 69 |
| tiancs | No | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-this-week-january-18
| Jade Harbor B075 | No | 41 |
| 0xwon | No | 40 |
| walka | No | 40 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 40 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | No | 39 |
| rocketcrypto | No | 15 |
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