Analytics
Resolved Yes on 4 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 60.5%. Yes opened at 53.5% on 26 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 26 Jun 2025 to 4 Jul 2025, the highest close was 60.5% on 4 Jul 2025 and the lowest 42.5% on 1 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 60.5% on 4 Jul 2025. $15.1K traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 5, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 26 Jun 2025 – 4 Jul 2025, chart shows 30%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Jun 2025 | 53.5% |
| 4 Jul 2025 | 60.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Violet Meteor 2B2B | No | 1K |
| Bright Voyager E674 | No | 640 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 413 |
| Bright Horizon 60F4 | No | 305 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a speech on July 3 at 7:30 p.m. at the Iowa State Fairgrounds. You can find more information on that here: https://cbs2iowa.com/news/local/president-donald-trump-coming-to-iowa-next-month-ahead-of-fourth-of-july-holiday-iowa-state-fairgrounds-americas-birthday-cbs-news-white-house This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word comprised of two full words in common usage will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by July 3, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about the main speech Trump gives at the named event. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of this event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be video of the event.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-trump-say-during-iowa-state-fairgrounds-speech-on-july-3
| snarf | No | 135.61 |
| Rapid Signal 1C5B | No | 55 |
| tth | No | 31.6 |
| TheNoobBeaver | No | 30.09 |
| qpqpqp | No | 22.22 |
| LazarilloDTormes | No | 14.29 |
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