Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 91%. Yes opened at 14% on 16 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 16 Dec 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 14% on 16 Dec 2025 and the lowest 1.2% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7.8 points up, to 9% on 1 Jan 2026. $4.86K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 16 Dec 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Dec 2025 | 14.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 9.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tailevent | Yes | 600 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 328 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 193 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 152 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The Trump administration is considering imposing sanctions against the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-weighs-hitting-un-palestinian-refugee-agency-with-terrorism-related-sanctions-2025-12-10/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against the UNRWA by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Sanctions could include measures like financial penalties, diplomatic expulsions, travel bans, asset freezes, restrictions on specific individuals, restrictions on foreign entities from providing funding to the UNRWA, or any other actions that are commonly recognized as sanctions. A U.S. designation of the UNRWA as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) or any other official terrorist designation will qualify as sanctions. Sanctions against the entire UNRWA, specific parts of UNRWA operations, or specific officials of the UNRWA will count. Sanctions against citizens or entities which do not directly target the UNRWA or its officials will not qualify. The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on the UNRWA within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if/when the sanctions come into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-sanction-unrwa-in-2025
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 124 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 114 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 104 |
| Owwwnn | Yes | 46.6 |
| Kanp | Yes | 41.56 |
| Rlso | Yes | 41.48 |
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