Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

Resolved

Yes, settled Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$3.3M

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 1 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.7%. Yes opened at 52% on 19 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 259 daily closes on record from 19 Apr 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 99.7% on 1 Jan 2026 and the lowest 15.5% on 25 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 64 points up, to 82% on 3 Dec 2025. $3.26M traded over the market's life.

493 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:29 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 259 points, 19 Apr 2025 – 1 Jan 2026

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	298.14K
lijialijia2020	No	134.38K
slight-	No	26.4K

Rules

How this market was settled

Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/). This market will resolve to according the individual Donald Trump announces as his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31". The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.