Analytics
“Will Trump lower tariffs on EU in April?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Apr 6, 2025. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 8 hourly price points from Apr 4, 2025 to Apr 11, 2025 (Yes between 29.5% and 99.6%); 11 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 98.6% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 261 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
On April 2, 2025, Donald Trump announced a 20% reciprocal tariff on all imports from the European Union, set to take effect on April 9, 2025, at 12:01 a.m. EDT, as part of the “Liberation Day” tariff plan (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2025/04/02/regulating-imports-with-a-reciprocal-tariff-to-rectify-trade-practices-that-contribute-to-large-and-persistent-annual-united-states-goods-trade-deficits/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that lowers, pauses, delays, or removes any tariffs on imports from the European Union by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Actions that lower, pause, delay, or remove any tariffs on EU imports will qualify, including changes to the 20% reciprocal tariff, or any other existing or new tariffs affecting EU goods. Only the removal of tariffs specifically targeting the EU will qualify. For example, the removal of the 10% general tariff on all imports into the U.S., or a tariff on specific EU member states will not count toward this market's resolution. Any action officially enacted within the market’s time frame will qualify, regardless of when the change goes into effect. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-lower-tariffs-on-eu-in-april
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ZhangFei | No | 36.68 |
| InternationalBetter | No | 20.83 |
| Seischii | No | 7.25 |
| bijinilo | No | 2.86 |
| Quiet Atlas FB8B | Yes | 2.78 |
| ffiru | No | 1.43 |
| endofeverything | No | 1.43 |
| xxxui | No | 1.41 |
| vivian88 | No | 1.39 |
| Hieidi | No | 1.28 |