Analytics
Resolved No on 6 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95.2%. Yes opened at 5% on 5 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 5 Nov 2024 to 6 Nov 2024, the price held at 5%. $136.31K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 7, 5:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 5 Nov 2024 – 6 Nov 2024, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2024 | 5.0% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | 4.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Peterson1 | Yes | 5K |
| pnam1 | Yes | 4K |
| fuckingretarded | Yes | 1.16K |
| HappyCamper | Yes | 1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump loses the popular vote in Iowa, but wins the 2024 US presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Iowa and/or the 2024 US presidential election for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-lose-iowa-but-win-election
| mocro32 | Yes | 488.37 |
| SnoopDogg-676 | Yes | 321.75 |
| Staylow | Yes | 168.98 |
| Parisian1976 | Yes | 166.67 |
| Danielito.Portugal | Yes | 161.29 |
| Erika-Nachtwachterin | Yes | 151.52 |
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