Analytics
Resolved No on 15 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 3% on 12 May 2026. Before it settled, the high was 3% on 12 May 2026 and the low 0.1% on 15 May 2026. $1.27M traded over the market's life.
21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 16, 10:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 4 points · 12 May 2026 – 15 May 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 May 2026 | 3.0% |
| 15 May 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 11.87K |
| branch.eugene | Yes | 4K |
| cdunn | Yes | 3K |
| zh0......well | Yes | 1.9K |
| gardnerchar.les | Yes | 1K |
| phildubuy | Yes | 220.86 |
| products | Yes | 200 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 149.99 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 55 |
| a5tthsyuo3c | Yes | 20 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time. A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China. If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”. If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/when-will-trump-leave-china
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