Will Trump lead Biden by 1.6-1.9 or more in RCP on May 31?

politicsResolved

No, settled Jun 1, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$7.8K

Resolved

Settled

Jun 1, 2024 UTC

Topic roomTrump and the White House

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Jun 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 21.5% on 18 May 2024. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 18 May 2024 to 1 Jun 2024, the highest close was 21.5% on 18 May 2024 and the lowest 1% on 1 Jun 2024. Its largest one-day move was 8 points down, to 4.5% on 25 May 2024. $7.81K traded over the market's life.

2 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jun 2, 2:46 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 18 May 2024 – 1 Jun 2024, chart shows 0%–30%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
18 May 2024	21.5%
1 Jun 2024	1.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	2.42K
chinchillaScholar	No	0.02

2 of 2 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market on the RCP Polling Average margin between Donald Trump and Joe Biden as of May 31, 2024, 12:00 PM ET. The spread referenced in the first table on the "2024 General Election: Trump vs. Biden" page at https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the RCP Polling Average margin is between Trump +1.6 (inclusive) and Trump +1.9 (inclusive) percentage points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The RCP Polling Average will be checked on May 31, 12:00 PM ET. Please note, this market refers specifically to the margin for RCP polling average as presented in the aforementioned chart in the column titled 'Spread'. This includes any adjustments or methodology changes made by RCP in their calculation of the polling average or the date range used. If the RCP Polling Average margin data between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is not available by June 7, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source of polling data as of May 31, 12:00 PM ET will be used for market resolution.