Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 8% on 18 Mar 2025. Before it settled, the high was 61.5% on 30 Apr 2025 and the low 0.3% on 10 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 47 points up, to 50.9% on 28 Jun 2025. $1.76K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 291 points, 18 Mar 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Mar 2025 | 8.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 203.41 |
| Ilikedonuts | Yes | 100 |
| Mortonero | Yes | 81.61 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Adam Kinzinger serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 17 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-jail-adam-kinzinger
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| NiGriMa671 | Yes | 80 |
| power1337 | Yes | 71.52 |
| ghost345678910 | Yes | 28.14 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 15 |
| ovcinnikovinnokentij | Yes | 13.56 |
| AsuraSmellsLikeASS | Yes | 10 |
| kitrosrei2 | No | 7.61 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
