Analytics
Resolved No on 16 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 10.5% on 8 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 8 May 2026 to 16 May 2026, the highest close was 10.5% on 8 May 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 16 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6.9 points down, to 3.6% on 9 May 2026. $25.4K traded over the market's life.
38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 17, 4:12 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 8 May 2026 – 16 May 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 May 2026 | 10.5% |
| 16 May 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Happy-Go-Lucky-Clank | Yes | 2.17K |
| desmadrados | Yes | 790.63 |
| KostyaDDD | Yes | 608.44 |
| Long-Stage | Yes | 541.63 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Mohammed bin Salman personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-insult-mbs-by-may-15
| Incomplete-Brother | Yes | 528 |
| Clayton-Fox | Yes | 276.21 |
| Trtr2026 | Yes | 200 |
| MrCashMan | Yes | 184.23 |
| maoxmedia | Yes | 152.72 |
| Helwa | Yes | 111.11 |
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