Analytics
Resolved Yes on 17 Dec 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.4%. Yes opened at 80% on 24 Oct 2024. Before it settled, the high was 99.8% on 2 Dec 2024 and the low 70% on 31 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 85% on 6 Nov 2024. $194.34K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 18, 7:19 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 55 points · 24 Oct 2024 – 17 Dec 2024 · axis zoomed to 60%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2024 | 80.0% |
| 17 Dec 2024 | 99.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| kingfisher | No | 254.69 |
| yooore | No | 235.91 |
| lebanesewolf | No | 222.22 |
| Eldorian | No | 209.52 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
According to uselectionatlas.org Donald Trump received 74,225,926 votes in the 2020 Presidential election (see: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump receives 74,225,927 or more votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the total number of votes for Donald Trump in the 2024 Presidential election according to uselectionatlas.org once their dataset includes the certified vote totals for all U.S. States and the District of Columbia. If a recount is initiated before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after uselectionatlas.org has published vote totals based on the final certifications, the recount will not be considered. If there are no outstanding recounts, and electionatlas.org has not published total vote numbers based on the state certified results by December 17, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the total vote numbers from the United States Elections Project (electproject.org). If the United States Elections Project has not published certified vote totals, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-get-more-votes-than-2020
| IndiGamble | No | 88 |
| SharpElbows | No | 66.67 |
| Piratecat | No | 47.62 |
| Alain123 | No | 38.46 |
| 5ra1 | No | 20.83 |
| Chin777 | No | 18.75 |
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