Analytics
Resolved No on 28 Jun 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 1.4% on 24 Jun 2025. Before it settled, the high was 1.4% on 24 Jun 2025 and the low 0.1% on 28 Jun 2025. $53.11K traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 24, 6:22 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 24 Jun 2025 – 28 Jun 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jun 2025 | 1.4% |
| 28 Jun 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Definite-Oil | Yes | 1K |
| BamBoer | Yes | 275.73 |
| esoz | Yes | 142.86 |
| Anikisan | Yes | 34.71 |
| Rolocex | No | 0.01 |
| GaySanta | No | 0.01 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by June 27, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran." General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war. Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war. The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials however a consensus of credible reproing may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-declare-war-on-iran-by-friday
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