Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.2%. Yes opened at 17% on 12 Nov 2025. Before it settled, the high was 27.5% on 14 Nov 2025 and the low 0.7% on 31 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points down, to 18.5% on 17 Nov 2025. $168.34K traded over the market's life.
84 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 5:13 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 141 points · 12 Nov 2025 – 1 Apr 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2025 | 17.0% |
| 1 Apr 2026 | 0.8% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-create-a-tariff-dividend-by-march-31
| Yes |
| 1.21K |
| aaddddd | Yes | 889.59 |
| alaxena | Yes | 879.8 |
| Bamboo1999 | Yes | 653.57 |
| JoyceGrey | Yes | 500 |
| account154 | Yes | 499.88 |
| Indigo Pioneer B7DA | Yes | 312.19 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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