Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Dec 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 16% on 10 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 10 Dec 2024 to 11 Dec 2024, the highest close was 16% on 10 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.7% on 11 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 0.7% on 11 Dec 2024. $12.6K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 12, 9:15 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 10 Dec 2024 – 11 Dec 2024, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Dec 2024 | 16.0% |
| 11 Dec 2024 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Preballin | Yes | 226.75 |
| theloser23 | Yes | 3 |
| ycxbsdidj | No | 0.06 |
| degens9 | No | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This is a market group over what terms will appear in the Brian Thompson shooter's manifesto if it is released by Friday.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/brian-thompson-perp-manifesto-mentions
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