Analytics
Resolved No on 24 Aug 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 58.5% on 14 Jun 2023. Before it settled, across the 72 daily closes on record from 14 Jun 2023 to 24 Aug 2023, the highest close was 65% on 15 Jun 2023 and the lowest 0.5% on 24 Aug 2023. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 16.5% on 14 Jul 2023. $58.7K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 25, 1:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 72 points, 14 Jun 2023 – 24 Aug 2023
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jun 2023 | 58.5% |
| 24 Aug 2023 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Frank-Ruler | No | 86.34 |
| 005 | Yes | 43.48 |
| Suburban-Slot | Yes | 36.54 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if ex-President Donald J. Trump participates in the first Republican National Committee (RNC)-sanctioned presidential primary debate, currently scheduled for August 23, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "participation" will be defined as Trump directly participating in the debate by speaking at least once during the debate, and being acknowledged by the moderator of the debate. If Trump is a remote participant in this debate, this market will still resolve to "Yes". If this debate is split into multiple debates over multiple days, all days or rounds included in the debate will be considered toward the resolution of this market. If this debate is cancelled, delayed or rescheduled to a start date after September 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the debate, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-attend-the-first-rnc-debate
| Yes |
| 25 |
| lighthouseguardian | No | 23.33 |
| WashedPanda48 | No | 15 |
| Artistic-Sprat | Yes | 7.46 |
| dankman | No | 2.67 |
| HarvardInsider | Yes | 1.4 |
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