Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 12% on 15 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 172 daily closes on record from 15 Jul 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 12% on 15 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 22 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 0.2% on 16 Jul 2025. $625.34K traded over the market's life.
68 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 172 points, 15 Jul 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2025 | 12.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 298.14K |
| Immense-Predecessor | Yes | 21.5K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 16.52K |
Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/). This market will resolve to according the individual Donald Trump announces as his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31". The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-announce-as-next-fed-chair
| flow-trader-at-optiver | Yes | 7.11K |
| GayPride | Yes | 5.99K |
| Novus0rdoSeclorum | Yes | 5.75K |
| Cookedtan | Yes | 3.81K |
| Siziriv | Yes | 3.64K |
| shine | Yes | 3.53K |
| NoMoreMister | Yes | 3.39K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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