Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 18.5% on 28 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 28 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 32% on 29 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 32% on 29 Nov 2025. $72.01K traded over the market's life.
57 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 28 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Nov 2025 | 18.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| amused85 | Yes | 14.69K |
| DarthTyranus | Yes | 442 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 440 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the U.S. will cut military or intelligence aid to Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any official announcement signaling a substantial reduction in either military or intelligence aid will qualify, regardless of whether or not the cuts actually occur. A qualifying announcement must state an actual decision to cut military or intelligence aid. Conditional, hypothetical, or contingent statements, such as “aid may be cut,” “could be cut,” or “will be cut if…”, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump Administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting confirming that such cuts have occurred will also suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-announce-cutting-military-aid-to-ukraine-by
| Yes |
| 190.91 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 188 |
| IvanVand | Yes | 181 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 149.98 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 125 |
| Absolute-Jellyfish | Yes | 115.09 |
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