Analytics
Resolved Yes on 22 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 12.5% on 29 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 29 May 2026 to 22 Jun 2026, the highest close was 100% on 19 Jun 2026 and the lowest 10.5% on 11 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 48 points up, to 70.5% on 17 Jun 2026. $6.56M traded over the market's life.
523 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 23, 12:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 29 May 2026 – 22 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 May 2026 | 12.5% |
| 22 Jun 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| war1011 | No | 461K |
| yesworld28 | No | 160K |
| dilbo | No | 150K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran by May June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran refers to any official U.S. or U.S. military initiative or commitment to materially reduce the total number of U.S. military personnel stationed or deployed in the Middle East, Persian Gulf, or countries neighboring or proximate to Iran. A qualifying initiative must be publicly identified as a deliberate reduction in US military presence near Iran. Routine troop movements, relocations, or regular variations in the deployment or stationing of US military personnel, which are not part of a qualifying initiative or commitment, will not count. The United States will be considered to have agreed to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran. - The withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-june-30
| No |
| 116K |
| Understated-Tenth | No | 100K |
| Huge-Aluminum | No | 100K |
| Keen-Spectacles | No | 100K |
| Worthy-Refreshments-Balcony | No | 100K |
| Insider404 | No | 100K |
| Royal Orbit BBF7 | No | 94K |
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