Analytics
Resolved Yes on 30 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 45%. Yes opened at 45.5% on 27 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 35 daily closes on record from 27 Nov 2025 to 30 Dec 2025, the highest close was 80.5% on 23 Dec 2025 and the lowest 15% on 19 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 56 points up, to 71.5% on 21 Dec 2025. $3.68K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 31, 8:37 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 27 Nov 2025 – 30 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Nov 2025 | 45.5% |
| 30 Dec 2025 | 45.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the listed country/entity by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements to extend tariff exemptions will qualify if announced as an individualized extension. However, tariff exemptions which are announced as part of a class of exemptions and do not reflect individual deals - such as Trump’s April 9 pause on all reciprocal tariffs other than those on China - will not qualify (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/). Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. Agreements that include the United States and the listed country/entity as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-by-december-31
| No |
| 87.67 |
| account154 | No | 66.5 |
| Disloyal-Knot | No | 49.68 |
| Misty-Puggle | No | 46.5 |
| Small-Towel | No | 40 |
| rocketcrypto | No | 15 |
| infoswaggy | No | 12.29 |
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