Analytics
Resolved No on 17 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.5%. Yes opened at 4% on 15 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 15 Jul 2026 to 17 Jul 2026, the highest close was 4% on 15 Jul 2026 and the lowest 1.5% on 17 Jul 2026. $6.16K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 18, 2:19 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 15 Jul 2026 – 17 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2026 | 4.0% |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 1.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| PaddyAlpha | Yes | 1.61K |
| Strict-Quicksand | Yes | 468.59 |
| Spirited-Trip | Yes | 146.51 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly alleges that interference by the listed country has occurred in any US election held after the 2016 US presidential election between market creation and July 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying interference includes, but is not limited to: manipulation of vote tallies or voting machines; hacking of election infrastructure; casting of fraudulent ballots; coordinated disinformation or influence campaigns intended to alter the election's outcome; or illegal foreign funding of campaigns. Allegations limited to procedural irregularities, administrative errors, ordinary lobbying, legal foreign media coverage, or fraud of domestic or unspecified origin will not qualify. The alleged interference must be attributed to the government of the listed country, a state-affiliated entity, organization, or nationals of the listed country acting in that capacity. The actor must be identified at least at the national level (e.g., "China," "Russian operatives," "Iranian hackers"). A qualifying statement must definitively allege that election interference occurred. Statements that are clearly satirical, hypothetical, or rhetorical will not qualify (e.g., "Did China interfere? Who knows," "If China interfered...", "They could easily interfere”). A statement need not use the word "interference." Any phrasing that communicates the three elements above (e.g., "China stole the election," "Russia rigged the vote in Pennsylvania") will qualify. Reposts, retweets, or shares of third-party content will qualify only if accompanied by original commentary from Trump that itself meets the criteria above, or if the repost includes an unambiguous endorsement of a qualifying claim (e.g., "TRUE!"). A bare repost without comment will not qualify. Statements made by representatives will not alone qualify. Reports of private conversations, leaked audio not intended for public release, and secondhand accounts will not qualify. Any public statement from the listed individual, written or verbal, will qualify. Speeches in which the listed individual begins speaking within the time frame of this market will qualify, even if their allegation falls outside the market’s timeframe. The resolution source for this market will be public statements by Donald Trump.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-trump-accuse-of-election-interference-by-july-16-20260714013930793
| Crowded-Walk | Yes | 100 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| Cat042 | Yes | 34.27 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 15 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
| Dr.PNL | No | 0.01 |
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