Will Todd Graham be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Resolved

No, settled Jul 22, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$8.6K

Resolved

Settled

Jul 22, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 22 Jul 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 42% on 26 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 214 daily closes on record from 26 Nov 2025 to 22 Jul 2026 (25 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 42% on 26 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 13 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 8.5% on 27 Nov 2025. $8.59K traded over the market's life.

43 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jul 22, 6:36 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 214 points, 26 Nov 2025 – 22 Jul 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
26 Nov 2025	42.0%
22 Jul 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	9.72K
Keen Kestrel E421	Yes	1K
Cosmic Horizon 485A	Yes	994.85

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.