Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 17.5% on 19 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 44 daily closes on record from 19 May 2026 to 1 Jul 2026, the highest close was 17.5% on 19 May 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 21 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 2.5% on 20 May 2026. $9.9K traded over the market's life.
27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 1, 1:15 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 44 points, 19 May 2026 – 1 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 May 2026 | 17.5% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 12.24K |
| Wodop | Yes | 2.5K |
| Loyalty-Crash | Yes | 2.2K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026 This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ky-04-republican-primary-margin-of-victory
| Yes |
| 1.13K |
| Prickly-Timer-Province | Yes | 603 |
| fanmt | Yes | 140 |
| baE92E7959377B18Fd63b772C74147724E0.E7475 | Yes | 120.86 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| Echelonprt | Yes | 100 |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 60.63 |
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