Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.6%. Yes opened at 9.5% on 24 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 24 Dec 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 9.5% on 24 Dec 2025 and the lowest 1.5% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8.1 points down, to 1.5% on 1 Jan 2026. $17.13K traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 16, 7:44 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 24 Dec 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Dec 2025 | 9.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 1.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.98K |
| GGBCHUO | Yes | 509.94 |
| ValkNex | Yes | 500 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of distinct vessels that Donald Trump, the U.S. government, or U.S. armed forces announce were struck by U.S. armed forces while designated as narco-terrorist targets between market creation and January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Any announcement made within this market's timeframe of a qualifying, previously unannounced strike will count, regardless of whether the strike occurred within this market's timeframe. A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces at a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from the US government or armed forces; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/of-announced-new-drug-boat-strikes-by-january-31
| Yes |
| 326 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 301 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 164 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 157 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 137 |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 113.04 |
| t189 | Yes | 99.99 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
