Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 54.5% on 23 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 23 May 2026 to 2 Jun 2026, the highest close was 54.5% on 23 May 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 2 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 13% on 29 May 2026. $3.47K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 3, 10:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 23 May 2026 – 2 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 May 2026 | 54.5% |
| 2 Jun 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.14K |
| Acclaimed-Muscle | Yes | 557.57 |
| Iboseth | Yes | 178.31 |
| Keen Harbor 7156 | Yes | 109 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 25, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-may-25-may-31
| Rokokoraccoon | Yes | 100 |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 70.06 |
| Ivory Scout 508D | Yes | 37.25 |
| Colala | Yes | 29.94 |
| Tukituki | Yes | 27.78 |
| to-the-moooon | Yes | 21 |
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