Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?

Resolved

No, settled May 11, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$2.9K

Resolved

Settled

May 11, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 11 May 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 1.3% on 1 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 11 May 2026, the highest close was 1.3% on 1 May 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 5 May 2026. $2.9K traded over the market's life.

17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 11, 6:56 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 1 May 2026 – 11 May 2026, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
1 May 2026	1.3%
11 May 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	1.78K
Jimmiux	Yes	734.82
wabi1950	Yes	206.4
Deafening-Possible	Yes	160.09

10 of 17 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.