Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?

Resolved

No, settled Dec 29, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$8.4K

Resolved

Settled

Dec 29, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 29 Dec 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 4.5% on 23 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 23 Dec 2025 to 29 Dec 2025, the highest close was 4.5% on 23 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 29 Dec 2025. $8.39K traded over the market's life.

19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 30, 8:31 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 23 Dec 2025 – 29 Dec 2025, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
23 Dec 2025	4.5%
29 Dec 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	2.83K
vaderrs	Yes	499.98
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	333.98
Crimson Falcon C79A	Yes	200.09

10 of 19 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 22, 12:00 AM ET, and December 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.