Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?

Resolved

No, settled Apr 21, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$8.2K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 21, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 21 Apr 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 79.5%. Yes opened at 13% on 12 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 12 Apr 2026 to 18 Apr 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 20.5% on 18 Apr 2026 and the lowest 13% on 12 Apr 2026. $8.21K traded over the market's life.

14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 21, 12:38 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 12 Apr 2026 – 18 Apr 2026, chart shows 10%–25%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
12 Apr 2026	13.0%
18 Apr 2026	20.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	5.82K
cry.eth2	Yes	334.29
Second-Hand-Presume	Yes	150
nrynry	Yes	133.51

10 of 14 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.