Analytics
Resolved No on 21 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.6%. Yes opened at 13% on 5 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 127 daily closes on record from 5 Dec 2025 to 18 Apr 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 24.5% on 22 Mar 2026 and the lowest 1.9% on 3 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 16% on 25 Mar 2026. $129.46K traded over the market's life.
96 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 22, 10:07 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 127 points, 5 Dec 2025 – 18 Apr 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Dec 2025 | 13.0% |
| 18 Apr 2026 | 3.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 23.88K |
| gopfan2 | Yes | 4.07K |
| amused85 | Yes | 3K |
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-7pt0-or-above-earthquakes-by-june-30
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 1.18K |
| Gennedy | Yes | 1.14K |
| Kosher-Exhaust | Yes | 666.67 |
| Steve-Hao | Yes | 516.89 |
| labistiiia | Yes | 500 |
| norealtime | Yes | 500 |
| readyplayer6 | Yes | 500 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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